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Coronavirus & the NYC Market Past Crises Suggest Reason for Hope

First and foremost, we hope you are staying safe and healthy. We are obviously living through unprecedented times, and are taking things day by day. Our goal is to keep you updated on what we are experiencing, reading and learning - which as you know, changes on a daily, sometimes hourly basis. Our team has decided not to list new property for the next couple of weeks, and monitor the market and world conditions. We do not want to put anyone in jeopardy and of course want to respect the city's desire to keep people quarantined. 

Here is what we have learned from Goldman Sachs: For the US, the team’s baseline assumption is that the economy will experience the sharpest quarterly contraction since the global financial crisis in the second quarter, followed by strong sequential growth in the second half of the year. But that outlook depends on a number of factors, including the severity and length of the coronavirus/COVID-19 outbreak, how quickly spending recovers when it abates, and the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy in providing support in the meantime. 

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%. The S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall. There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year. Technically, the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history. There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. 

Speaking of Government intervention, here's a breakdown of the three economic measures the US government has passed, or is in the midst of negotiating: 

Stimulus Phase 1 

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Comments

  • I am in the midst of construction of a new bathroom and shower in a condo. Job is 40% done but apartment is currently not liveable. Can electrician and plumber construction continue as “essential” if contractors follow condo rules of health and safety? They (2 workers) are contained within one apartment and take separate service elevator to job and at end of day. Are they allowed to finish the job?